A 57% chance of a Fed rate hike says less about conviction than calibration. Laura Shin highlights the key question: whether Kalshi’s odds reliably track outcomes, as its research argues prediction markets can even without institutional-scale trading.
published
A 57% chance of a Fed rate hike says less about conviction than calibration. Laura Shin highlights the key question: whether Kalshi’s odds reliably track outcomes, as its research argues prediction markets can even without institutional-scale trading.
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