Arnold Ventures Co-Chair @​JohnArnold explains why chipmakers, like TSMC, aren't building capacity as fast as the AI boom might suggest: "If you're a commodity producer, like the memory chip companies kind of are, after you've fallen for this boom-bust cycle where you expanded capacity at the top of the market, and again, all your competitors saw the same price signals and did the same thing, you have that bust." "That bust just causes so much financial pain that at some point you're like, 'I'm not doing this unless my customers are going to sign a three- or five-year offtake agreement at prices that pay for the whole factory and then some, such that if we've overbuilt, that's on the customer. That's not on me.'" "A couple of years ago, AI could have gone a number of different ways. It's gone the bull case to date. But where does it go from now? I don't think these companies want to bet their future on it." ▻